Kenyans will pay a high price for post-election violence early in 2008, with the country’s tourism industry expected not to have fully recovered by 2012 as projected.
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The effects of the violence, and the global financial crisis will cost the industry — the country’s third foreign exchange earner after tea and horticulture — its mid-term targets under Vision 2030.
“We may be close but we will not reach the targets,” said Stanbic Investments (EA) Ltd chief investment officer, Anthony Mwithiga, at a press briefing at Nairobi.
Under the Vision 2030 Mid-Term Plan (2007-2012), the industry is expected to increase international visitors from 1.8 million in 2007, which was its best year ever, to 3 million in 2012.
Over the same period, it is expected to increase average spend from Sh40,000 to Sh70,000, triple tourism earning from Sh65.4 billion to Sh200 billion in 2012.
The announcement comes at a time when industry players are optimistic about its performance this year, following improvements in 2009.
“This year is going to be challenging but not like 2009. We expect a steady growth that may see us matching our best year, 2007,” said Mr Jake Grieves-Cook, the chairman of the Kenya Tourist Board (KTB), which markets the country as a tourist destination.
However, the Stanbic Investments analysts said enactment of the proposed Tourism Bill and Tourism Policy holds the key to the success of the industry.
Travel advisories
“If we put in place the relevant regulatory framework, we will sort out some of the challenges,” said Mr Mwithiga. Some of the challenges are poor infrastructure, funding—South Africa’s marketing budget allocation per tourist is about Sh800 against Kenya’s Sh400, insecurity, political environment, travel advisories and bed capacity constraints.
Also, the regulatory framework, which played a major role in the country’s ranking at position 97 out of 181 countries by the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2009 one position ahead of Tanzania but way below main competitors like South Africa, 61, and Egypt, 64.
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